EU fiscal space expands: 3% deficit target by 2027
The EU is entering a new phase of fiscal governance. Better flexibility and more practical fiscal targets under new rules could increase efficiency and improve compliance. – Written by Doğan Erbek
Global growth in 2026: resilient but slowing, according to UN and leading investment banks
Global growth in 2026 is projected between 2.7% and 3.3%, below pre pandemic averages but still resilient amid trade tensions, fiscal constraints and structural headwinds. The article compares UN, IMF and Goldman Sachs forecasts and highlights what this divergence means for major economies and long term investors. – Written by Doğan Erbek
2026 global trade realignment: IMF insights on tariffs and chains
Global trade in 2026 is being shaped by a combination of tariff uncertainty, shifting supply chains and an evolving geopolitical landscape. – Written by Doğan Erbek
Multipolarity without multilateralism: Key insights from the World Economic Forum’s 2026 outlook
The World Economic Forum’s 2026 outlook presents a compelling analysis of a global environment defined by increasing multipolarity and declining multilateral cooperation. – Written by Doğan Erbek
Global markets show resilience amid ongoing uncertainty
Despite a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and uneven growth, global markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Investors and analysts are noting that, despite ongoing volatility, underlying fundamentals and adaptive strategies are helping markets navigate uncertainty with surprising strength. I’ve explained below some indicators of this resilient growth and the headwinds facing global markets. Steady …
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Climate, UN warning: ‘Exceeding the 1.5 degree threshold is inevitable’
Here’s some uncomfortable news: The world is approaching a critical climate tipping point. According to the United Nations and leading scientific bodies, exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold above pre‑industrial temperatures (at least temporarily) is now considered inevitable. As I explain further below, this stark warning underscores the urgency of global climate action and the profound implications …
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AI could displace 200,000 bank employees in Europe
Artificial intelligence is reshaping global finance, but nowhere is the impact more keenly felt than in Europe, where analysts warn that AI could displace 200,000 bank employees by 2030. This projected shift reflects a structural transformation in how banks operate, compete, and deliver services in an increasingly digital marketplace. The scale of potential displacement is …
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Public debt as a structural feature of modern economies
Public debt is often portrayed as a sign of fiscal weakness or poor governance, but in reality, it has become a structural feature of modern economies. Far from being a temporary expedient, sovereign borrowing is now embedded in the way states manage growth, stability, and social welfare. Understanding why debt evolved from an emergency tool …
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The paradox of AI labor: Humans training their replacements
The paradox of AI labor, sometimes called the paradox of self-replacing workers, captures a striking tension in today’s economy: humans are required to train the very systems that could eventually automate their tasks and displace them. This is not a distant scenario; it is unfolding now as organizations integrate AI into everyday workflows. Knowledge transfer …
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Interest rates at a turning point between restriction and relief
Global monetary policy is entering a new phase after several years of aggressive tightening. From Washington to Frankfurt and London, central banks that once raced to raise interest rates to combat surging inflation are now pausing and signaling a shift toward easing. This transition marks a critical moment for economies, businesses, and households worldwide. For …
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